Catching up with Carl

What to make of the Ragatz Conference this past March? Attendance was down, but given current financial affairs, that was to be expected. We all continue to anticipate that the economy is improving, but there seems only incremental evidence to support that hope. However, Dick Ragatz quoted six projects that sold well. One such project was the Hyatt in Aspen, which was selling at 1/20thshares, certainly giving it the price advantage. It appears that smart developers are planning for 2012 and thereabouts, when most believe the buyers will come back.

I asked Dick’s daughter, Tracy, who does the annual surveys, to consider taking a sample and then calling the developers to really dig down and get the numbers and the numbers behind the numbers. It seems natural that some respondents err on the high side when they report their findings that then end up in the annual report. A more in-depth sample would be good data to use with lenders and others planning to come into the business.

During the three-day conference, I attended a great panel on social media. It was the first one I’ve ever heard as it applies to our business. I am a believer, but it served to reinforce the necessity of having a staff person on all the two-way Internet avenues full time. Define yourself or be defined! I also heard at the conference—for the third time in two weeks—that of the last 50 million or so new Facebook accounts, the majority were women ages 45 to 65. If that is not directly in our roundhouse then nothing is! So, what used to be, “Get a Facebook account so the kids will think the project is cool,” is now “Get the project on Facebook, so the buyer will know you are legit.”

In other news, Chris Kelsey, of the Kelsey-Norden Reports, demonstrated that the Generation X folk, ages 30 to 45, are more interested in buying resort property than the Boomers, and certainly have a more positive attitude about being able to do so. This is a sea change in our business! Chris also pointed out that developers with inventory would have to build their way out of this economy (or their lenders will have to do so) as literally no one wants to buy a lot. On the other hand, 19% of consumers wanted to buy a fraction.

Other events worth a mention included a panel of PRC owners—very savvy folk from the San Francisco Bay Area—which was really interesting, and the new business card exchange hour, which was a terrific success. It was managed by Rob Webb andHoward Nusbaum, and they are a team-in-action to behold! What a free-for-all!