Just back from ARDA’s convention in Orlando…it just gets bigger including the exhibition hall. There seems no end to the expenses exhibitors will go to, or maybe ARDA is just catching up other trade groups. Is there really that much money in travel certs?

I ran into two ‘old timers’ and ARDA stalwarts; Bill Ingersoll and his partner Stu Bloch. We compared our first ARDA/ALDA meetings. Stu and I were 1972 and Bill 1971, but heck, his father founded the organization! Are we in a rut or what?

Of worthy note, ARDA was at the Dolphin/Swan two years ago, and one of the bartenders swears he remembers some of us. Now, that’s an indelible impression.

Generally, the rooms are lousy, the elevators great, the concierge lousy, the food good and unlike Vegas [the other end of the alternate year switch] one can get out into the air humid as it might be.

I presented on a fractional panel dealing with mid-tier product vs. the PRC we all talk about so much. Congrats to the usually uninspired meetings committee for a very interesting topic and to John Sweeney, chair of the panel, for really excellent topics and questions. Geeze, I had to really think about what to say, which ended up in a self-serving white paper on them.

I shared the panel with Jeff Yamaguchi, ex MGM and now Global Resorts, and Dean Kneider of Intrrawest two really thoughtful pros. Dick Ragatz prodded us on as John Sweeney had a family illness and could not attend at the last minute. I think we made some sense…at least I know Jeff and Dean did.

The non-PRCs are really a fertile market and no one seems to pay much attention to them. Dick Ragatz defines them as selling for under $ik per square foot. To that I add regional locations, service levels and HOA fees to fit the buyer with family income of $150k vs. the PRC of $300k and up. Heck, if PRC’s are now selling at an average of $1800 per square foot that leaves a lot of room underneath for other product.

I did one of these fractions in Sunriver OR back in 1988-89. It’s a neat market. At times I wonder who really needs all the flash and dash of the uber-PRC? Of course, I say this as SRG is going three of them in sales!

Godsend this week: 18” of Sierra snow so Kirkwood can get a last shot at two skiing and selling weeks. As I landed in Salt Lake this AM, on the way back from Orlando, it was snowing, so Snowbird will be ecstatic, too. Durango is out of this snow pattern, and their season is all but over…a sub-par year for snow. Building continues at a great pace at Meriwether Ranch in Montana.

Next week I’ll be up in Minnesota, north of MSP, so if there’s a ‘burrr’ left I may get it.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Big week: Ragatz Fractional Conference + Mt Superior Club, Snowbird UT.

The 7th Ragatz conference…tension between the North Course [RCI] guys who were shut out as they used to own Ragatz, and open arms to Interval International, who used to be shut out as competitive to RCI. The guard changes.

That said; sell out crowd of over 500 attendees. Almost too big to work the crowd effectively. Lots of new faces - where do they all come from?

Big topic for me was all the mini developers who are planning to do homes, one -off to three to colonies of them. Must have been 15 I met or heard ask questions. Probably many more.

Unanswered: how to manage them and will buyers buy with so few interests and homes?

Also, some statements of, 'forget the intensive service' out buyers just want a second home. Interesting if that comes true with sales?

The Flags keep expanding. Ritz, Fairmont, St. Regis and Intrawest can't get product to market fast enough. They are real believers.

The role of the independent? Unlimited with superb location and smaller projects that the Flags can't afford to develop.

A semi surprise to me on Ragatz's survey results on price per square foot for 3 beds at $1,516 and 4 beds at $1,803. Does this include Little Nel in Aspen? Did not ask. But, kinda puts perspective to our $2000 per square at Mt. Superior Club at Snowbird at being 'so high'

Later in the week at Snowbird. We had a buyer come in a take 'one of each' comprised of a 3 bed, 4 bed both 8ths and a 1/4th 3 bed and ¼ 4 bed each at over $1,3 million. That's the kind of buyer we like!.

Back to Ragatz, good to see some ULI types there bridging the gap between the large mixed use developers and the single site fractional developers.

The business is hot out there!