Talking Timeshare, the weekly, two-hour radio program hosted by Mark Silverman, is part of a new wave of Internet radio programs. I was on for an hour last week with Mark lobbing me both soft and hard balls. I'm not sure who exactly tunes in, but the station has a bunch of sponsors, so apparently there are plenty of listeners out there.
In other news, Star is closing in on a project on theGulf Coast of Texas. Located south of Galveston, the project will include building sites on both the ocean and the bay. The plan is to build four bed/bath homes sold on both a whole and fractional basis. There's terrific rental income in the area, so that should help the larger fractions that are sold. The project is an hour from Houston, which is not feeling as much of the recession as is the rest of the country. Houston's business is centered on energy and medicine. We are eager to 'git at' those Texans.
I've just returned from New Orleans after having made multiple trips to assist in the packaging of a number of French Quarter properties. If funded, which looks promising by the way, there will be a major mixed-use project comprised of a hotel, hotel condos, regular condos, fractional and timeshare condos along with plenty of retail and parking lots. Talk about mixed use!
The other parcels are more condos and mid-rise parking. As you can imagine, parking in the Quarter is a major deal. The local team is first rate, and property values in the Quarter have jumped 25% in the past year. The only negative is that those folks really believe the New Orleans Saints can win their conference and host the Super Bowl to be held in NOLA in February. Naturally, it will be the 49ers there instead.
Our business continues to be dogged by lagging consumer confidence, as you are aware, and a very sluggish economy. So, any starts Star has will be gradual in the hopes that 2013 and 2014 will see us come out of the current malaise.
I want to give a 'shout out' to the 4,000-plus members of LinkedIn that are members of the Luxury Fractional Group and of the Luxury Resort Development Group. Both were put together by Bruce Cuthbertson. If you haven't joined already, feel free to click the links above to do so.
Sunday, July 01, 2012
Friday, June 01, 2012
Catching up with Carl - June 2012
As we all know, the U.S. economy lurches in fits and starts—good news is followed by negative news on consumer confidence, job creation and the like. We have yet to see what exactly the new reporting requirements for community banks, which supply much of the necessary capital for our projects, will mean.
I could not attend the ULI’s Recreational Development Council in May, but from reports, there was some upbeat news (economists aside). On the whole unit side, there are sales of new inventory of smaller houses and cottages (such as the successfulTalking Rock Ranch in Prescott, AZ), as well as the very high end, which continues to perform well. What’s left of distressed homes will sell if the price is right. At least we know the demand is still there for second homes; the younger boomers and the older Gen Xers see the value in quality family time and the multi-generational aspect of vacation home ownership.
On the downside, Daniel Alpert reports from ULI that 23% of all homes in the U.S. are under water. I know we’ve all heard the statistics before, but one in four homes—wow. It’s certainly holding down any recovery in our sector. However, the Wall Street Journalrecently reported that foreign buyers, particularly Canadians, are very active, which is some good news for the areas they travel.
In other updates, Sherman Potvin reports that his inquiries are few and far between and mainly raw land as there’s little or no money available for building. Here at Star, we continue to work on deals on the Gulf Coast of Texas and in New Orleans. The money is elusive; here, but not on the table. Gosh, this has been going on for near four years now!
Some positive news: Timbers Resorts continues its streak as it picks up yet another project in Northern California wine country (can they make the golf course any more playable?) and opens the hotel portion of its Tuscany project. And, Auberge Resorts has expanded into Oregon. Auberge is unique in that it manages small, luxury properties, many with a fractional component, allowing the company to really understand the “demands” of owners. A big congratulations to Auberge Resorts and CEO Mark Harmon.
I could not attend the ULI’s Recreational Development Council in May, but from reports, there was some upbeat news (economists aside). On the whole unit side, there are sales of new inventory of smaller houses and cottages (such as the successfulTalking Rock Ranch in Prescott, AZ), as well as the very high end, which continues to perform well. What’s left of distressed homes will sell if the price is right. At least we know the demand is still there for second homes; the younger boomers and the older Gen Xers see the value in quality family time and the multi-generational aspect of vacation home ownership.
On the downside, Daniel Alpert reports from ULI that 23% of all homes in the U.S. are under water. I know we’ve all heard the statistics before, but one in four homes—wow. It’s certainly holding down any recovery in our sector. However, the Wall Street Journalrecently reported that foreign buyers, particularly Canadians, are very active, which is some good news for the areas they travel.
In other updates, Sherman Potvin reports that his inquiries are few and far between and mainly raw land as there’s little or no money available for building. Here at Star, we continue to work on deals on the Gulf Coast of Texas and in New Orleans. The money is elusive; here, but not on the table. Gosh, this has been going on for near four years now!
Some positive news: Timbers Resorts continues its streak as it picks up yet another project in Northern California wine country (can they make the golf course any more playable?) and opens the hotel portion of its Tuscany project. And, Auberge Resorts has expanded into Oregon. Auberge is unique in that it manages small, luxury properties, many with a fractional component, allowing the company to really understand the “demands” of owners. A big congratulations to Auberge Resorts and CEO Mark Harmon.
Sunday, April 01, 2012
Catching up with Carl - April 2012
I’ve recently returned from the ARDA World Convention, which was held in Las Vegas April 1–5. It’s still very heavily timesharing, and let me say that I found it energizing to attend. I went just for the day on April 4, and was able to make a lunch held for former ARDA chairs, which is a really nice event sponsored by ARDA.
How grand to see Bert Blicher, Deb Linden, Bob Miller, Jon Fredricks, Don Harrill (ARDA current chair), Franz Hanning (chair-elect) and Bill Ingersoll,whom I first met in 1972! What a time warp. And, of course, the irrepressible Howard Nusbaum. I’m pleased to report that everyone is doing quite well: Bert has bought a resale company, and will be the first resale operation led by a developer and to ‘do it right’. Deb’s son is going to college, gosh her wedding was just yesterday! Jon at Welk continues to grow and add projects, Don at Holiday Inn is on a roll, Franz at Wyndham is the big gun in terms of sales and member families, and Bob has spun Marriott Vacations Worldwide into a separate public company. Bill is the only one with the sense to be retired, but that’s not specifically true as he’s got to manage Stu Bloch. Speaking of the “Bloch-busta,” he and Bob Wengel won the golf tourney this year!
ARDA also gave me the chance to catch up with other colleagues: Art Spaulding, Michael and Christine Butler, and The Ragatz himself along with daughter and fractional pro Tracy. Of course, I can’t leave out the dynamic duo of Gregg Anderson and Michele Combs from the Registry Collection, and David McDonald, who was a wave in the hallway between meetings. The A team was there!
Also in attendance were those whom I have followed in their businesses from inception: June and Mel Grantfrom SFX Exchange, Brian Rock from VacationGuard and Marc Saxe of Resort Opportunities. These folks, who have made successful businesses from their original ideas, were thrilling to catch up with.
I was able to enjoy an excellent breakfast with former business partner John Kazanjian, who I had not seen in, what, 5 years?! Old friends should not let that happen. I also caught a few good moments with PR proGeorgie Bohrod and architect extraordinaire Rick Hulbert. Perhaps the most inspirational part of the trip, however, was seeing all the young kids who are committed to an industry that I helped to found.
So, back to business after all this name dropping: I am more fully convinced that the real market won’t be back until after the elections; one way or another, our customers will make their move. We are closing in on a Texas venture and have a couple more serious candidates for work and/or ventures. Each deal has some hair on it, but what would one expect after three and a half years of recession?
How grand to see Bert Blicher, Deb Linden, Bob Miller, Jon Fredricks, Don Harrill (ARDA current chair), Franz Hanning (chair-elect) and Bill Ingersoll,whom I first met in 1972! What a time warp. And, of course, the irrepressible Howard Nusbaum. I’m pleased to report that everyone is doing quite well: Bert has bought a resale company, and will be the first resale operation led by a developer and to ‘do it right’. Deb’s son is going to college, gosh her wedding was just yesterday! Jon at Welk continues to grow and add projects, Don at Holiday Inn is on a roll, Franz at Wyndham is the big gun in terms of sales and member families, and Bob has spun Marriott Vacations Worldwide into a separate public company. Bill is the only one with the sense to be retired, but that’s not specifically true as he’s got to manage Stu Bloch. Speaking of the “Bloch-busta,” he and Bob Wengel won the golf tourney this year!
ARDA also gave me the chance to catch up with other colleagues: Art Spaulding, Michael and Christine Butler, and The Ragatz himself along with daughter and fractional pro Tracy. Of course, I can’t leave out the dynamic duo of Gregg Anderson and Michele Combs from the Registry Collection, and David McDonald, who was a wave in the hallway between meetings. The A team was there!
Also in attendance were those whom I have followed in their businesses from inception: June and Mel Grantfrom SFX Exchange, Brian Rock from VacationGuard and Marc Saxe of Resort Opportunities. These folks, who have made successful businesses from their original ideas, were thrilling to catch up with.
I was able to enjoy an excellent breakfast with former business partner John Kazanjian, who I had not seen in, what, 5 years?! Old friends should not let that happen. I also caught a few good moments with PR proGeorgie Bohrod and architect extraordinaire Rick Hulbert. Perhaps the most inspirational part of the trip, however, was seeing all the young kids who are committed to an industry that I helped to found.
So, back to business after all this name dropping: I am more fully convinced that the real market won’t be back until after the elections; one way or another, our customers will make their move. We are closing in on a Texas venture and have a couple more serious candidates for work and/or ventures. Each deal has some hair on it, but what would one expect after three and a half years of recession?
Thursday, March 01, 2012
Catching up with Carl - March 2012
A breath of fresh air—finally! After three-plus years in the doldrums of recession, there appears to be hope.
I just returned from the Ragatz Conference held this year in Scottsdale. Some highlights: glorious weather and good hotel meeting rooms; a first-class outdoor reception replete with a golf contest to benefit Christel House and, afterward, an elegant and fun dinner courtesy of Gregg Anderson, who heads up the Registry Collection; and, for the second year, the socko business card exchange roundup managed by Rob Webb and Howard Nussbaum. I first saw the business card exchange at Fractional Life in London thanks to Piers Brown, who, by the way, will host his U.S. Fractional Life Conference this October in Denver.
Now, on to the substance: Dick Ragatz and his seasoned team put on an excellent conference this year. I think the best innovation was to have a panel with three researchers, all good by the way, moderated by the talented Michele Combs of the Registry Collection, and then followed by my panel with four users of research, Pat Hanes, Sean Zimmerman, Gary Moore andGregg Anderson. So, we had the theory followed by the practical.
Later in the day, Gregg moderated the first of two panels on marketing resort real estate with Dick moderating the second one. Gregg’s was on new media, and it was riveting!
It was good catching up with others in the industry: Jim Chaffin, a powerhouse developer and ULI leader, is doing a Maryland coastal project with fractional units. Meanwhile, Keith Cox of Resort Equities is on a super tear, adding staff and businesses, all while continuing to represent Ragatz Realty and turning consulting clients into business partners. He’s become a formidable conglomerate in the business, and is aided by the ever-talented Greg Traxler and others too numerous to mention.
And, wonderful to see old friends, especially Stuart Woolley, late of the Running Y and Eagle Crest, who is now semi-retired and selling ski hills with Jerry Andres, former ARDA Chair and ECO of Eagle Crest and founder of Trend West.
The overall feeling of the attendees was that 2012 would be better than the previous years (we hope so!) with many believing that it would be materially better. To exhibit the general sophistication of the
I just returned from the Ragatz Conference held this year in Scottsdale. Some highlights: glorious weather and good hotel meeting rooms; a first-class outdoor reception replete with a golf contest to benefit Christel House and, afterward, an elegant and fun dinner courtesy of Gregg Anderson, who heads up the Registry Collection; and, for the second year, the socko business card exchange roundup managed by Rob Webb and Howard Nussbaum. I first saw the business card exchange at Fractional Life in London thanks to Piers Brown, who, by the way, will host his U.S. Fractional Life Conference this October in Denver.
Now, on to the substance: Dick Ragatz and his seasoned team put on an excellent conference this year. I think the best innovation was to have a panel with three researchers, all good by the way, moderated by the talented Michele Combs of the Registry Collection, and then followed by my panel with four users of research, Pat Hanes, Sean Zimmerman, Gary Moore andGregg Anderson. So, we had the theory followed by the practical.
Later in the day, Gregg moderated the first of two panels on marketing resort real estate with Dick moderating the second one. Gregg’s was on new media, and it was riveting!
It was good catching up with others in the industry: Jim Chaffin, a powerhouse developer and ULI leader, is doing a Maryland coastal project with fractional units. Meanwhile, Keith Cox of Resort Equities is on a super tear, adding staff and businesses, all while continuing to represent Ragatz Realty and turning consulting clients into business partners. He’s become a formidable conglomerate in the business, and is aided by the ever-talented Greg Traxler and others too numerous to mention.
And, wonderful to see old friends, especially Stuart Woolley, late of the Running Y and Eagle Crest, who is now semi-retired and selling ski hills with Jerry Andres, former ARDA Chair and ECO of Eagle Crest and founder of Trend West.
The overall feeling of the attendees was that 2012 would be better than the previous years (we hope so!) with many believing that it would be materially better. To exhibit the general sophistication of the
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Catching up with Carl - February 2012
Star is now awash in deals! So, what happened? Either developers got antsy and finally decided to make a move, or it's just a bubble. We’ll see. However, the reality is that—until the economy gets its legs and consumers regain confidence—it will be hard to get sales. That said, this is the time for deals and planning for sales. Yes, employment got a shot, but the coming months are going to tell the tale. And, what of inflation? Will it not come?
Star is tracking deals in Texas, New York, Colorado, Louisiana and North Carolina. All projects, save one, need money, but that's expected. Almost all have inventory ready to sell, which got hung up with the recession. Some have willing bankers, others not.
We are a Gold Sponsor of the Ragatz Conference, held March 12–13 in Scottsdale, Arizona. Organizers expect around 250 attendees, certainly down from the good years, but better than 2011. Star will have a full complement in tow. I am moderating one session and sitting on another panel. It will be interesting to see who turns out this year: those looking for a job or those looking to staff up a project? Dick Ragatz has powered on through the recession, and our hope is that a broader representation of registrants attends this year than the past two years.
I've taken over two discussion groups on LinkedIn: Luxury Resort Development Group and Luxury Fractional Group. They total about 3,500 members—more than half of whom come from outside the USA—with some 8 to 12 new members joining every day. There are many deals in the two groups, though I’m not sure how many ever get taken up. The daily ebb and flow is very interesting to follow. We know this is the era of connectivity.
I ran into Bobby Coats of the Registry Collection in Kalispell, Montana, on February 2nd, and he confirmed little action for Registry but good activity for timeshares. On that note, Bob Wengel reports from Vegas that the more budget-priced timeshares are selling at a fast pace.
To be sure, this February looks better than the past three Februarys. So, that’s a start!
Star is tracking deals in Texas, New York, Colorado, Louisiana and North Carolina. All projects, save one, need money, but that's expected. Almost all have inventory ready to sell, which got hung up with the recession. Some have willing bankers, others not.
We are a Gold Sponsor of the Ragatz Conference, held March 12–13 in Scottsdale, Arizona. Organizers expect around 250 attendees, certainly down from the good years, but better than 2011. Star will have a full complement in tow. I am moderating one session and sitting on another panel. It will be interesting to see who turns out this year: those looking for a job or those looking to staff up a project? Dick Ragatz has powered on through the recession, and our hope is that a broader representation of registrants attends this year than the past two years.
I've taken over two discussion groups on LinkedIn: Luxury Resort Development Group and Luxury Fractional Group. They total about 3,500 members—more than half of whom come from outside the USA—with some 8 to 12 new members joining every day. There are many deals in the two groups, though I’m not sure how many ever get taken up. The daily ebb and flow is very interesting to follow. We know this is the era of connectivity.
I ran into Bobby Coats of the Registry Collection in Kalispell, Montana, on February 2nd, and he confirmed little action for Registry but good activity for timeshares. On that note, Bob Wengel reports from Vegas that the more budget-priced timeshares are selling at a fast pace.
To be sure, this February looks better than the past three Februarys. So, that’s a start!
Sunday, January 01, 2012
Catching up with Carl - January 2012
Life exists out there! Developers are beginning to stir. They have partially sold inventory that they need to sell for a number of reasons: getting stale, to work down bank loans, hopes that the economy is turning around, etc.
Star has been contacted by a number of developers to design work-through programs. The good news is that these are regional resorts where the market should come back first. The exception might be in Aspen, where the market never really went away, at least compared to other resorts.
Fractions have been 'missing in action' during the financial collapse and recession for reasons discussed before. But, as the seers have been saying, when the market comes back, the fractional interest will be the product of choice, again, for all the aforementioned reasons.
Will investors look at otherwise healthy resorts, where pricing is right, as an investment opportunity and finally leave the chase for buying damaged assets for cents on the dollar? We don't know that yet. But, there is an indicator or two that this may be the case. The ability to buy into a resort or project that has been well maintained and well positioned to re-enter the market with good to excellent margins should be appealing to knowledgeable investors.
There are obvious markets that have not been hyper-damaged by the recession. Texas stands out. As does New England, where prices did not crater as in other areas of the country.
Our approach has been cautious. We have poked and prodded the primary and secondary markets. We have probed the projects to see if there are fatal flaws. We have recommended use plans that fit the primary market, so in some cases there will be use plans within use plans.
It's clear that the market for buying a vacation home is still traumatized, but if the offering fits the specific lifestyle of the buyer and if the buyer will consider making an investment for his kids, then a sale will go down.
What of Gen X? We think they will be the driving force in the coming year or two. And thereafter, too, if the fractional product, pricing and lifestyle can stay attentive to Gen X needs. What say Chris Kelsey?
Damn, it's good to be back in business!
Star has been contacted by a number of developers to design work-through programs. The good news is that these are regional resorts where the market should come back first. The exception might be in Aspen, where the market never really went away, at least compared to other resorts.
Fractions have been 'missing in action' during the financial collapse and recession for reasons discussed before. But, as the seers have been saying, when the market comes back, the fractional interest will be the product of choice, again, for all the aforementioned reasons.
Will investors look at otherwise healthy resorts, where pricing is right, as an investment opportunity and finally leave the chase for buying damaged assets for cents on the dollar? We don't know that yet. But, there is an indicator or two that this may be the case. The ability to buy into a resort or project that has been well maintained and well positioned to re-enter the market with good to excellent margins should be appealing to knowledgeable investors.
There are obvious markets that have not been hyper-damaged by the recession. Texas stands out. As does New England, where prices did not crater as in other areas of the country.
Our approach has been cautious. We have poked and prodded the primary and secondary markets. We have probed the projects to see if there are fatal flaws. We have recommended use plans that fit the primary market, so in some cases there will be use plans within use plans.
It's clear that the market for buying a vacation home is still traumatized, but if the offering fits the specific lifestyle of the buyer and if the buyer will consider making an investment for his kids, then a sale will go down.
What of Gen X? We think they will be the driving force in the coming year or two. And thereafter, too, if the fractional product, pricing and lifestyle can stay attentive to Gen X needs. What say Chris Kelsey?
Damn, it's good to be back in business!
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