I just returned from Urban Land Institute's annual meeting and the semiannual meeting of the Recreational Development Council. Here's some of the news:
No one is enjoying robust sales, though a few, like Martis Camp in the Sierra Nevada, have seen good sales in 2011.
The bottom fishing is still going on with prices in Vail; some are even 30+% below 'back then'. Second-tier resort properties are discounted higher. The worst possible holding is entitled land without improvements. It's currently priced as the agriculture land it once was.
Buyers of resort projects, the big lot sales deals, have mainly been the very wealthy who are buying and holding. Interestingly, the buys, both personal and institutional, were at 20-30% of debt in 2010; in 2011, they are lower, like 10-15%. So, the sellers are realizing how bleak the landscape is. And some of the institutions are facing reality.
Consumer research [presented by Peter Yesawich of Y Partnership and Brooke Warrick of American Lives] validates that permanent changes have occurred with the wealthy post September 2008. There is a greater inward focus versus conspicuous showing off, and more emphasis on family. For sure, the youngest boomers and the Gen Xers take their kids everywhere, as we all have seen. And, as we know, everyone is placing more emphasis on value.
So, the wealthy are cutting back on the conspicuous areas, but not cutting out their interest in those things that benefit their family. Then, there's the multi-generational movement that continues to pick up speed.
Our workweeks have increased to 48 hours, the highest in the world for tier-one economies. And work is not ever left behind. We in the business need to provide the facilities to efficiently stay in touch. Then, there's personalization that we all are getting more and more used to. We want everything our way, and can usually get it. What does that say for vacation homes, use plans and amenities and activities?
Walking and bike paths— the least costly amenity (or no cost, such as in Whitefish, where the city has supplied them)—are among the most valuable amenities for reasons of health and sharing time. The happiest folk are those who have human interaction for at least six hours a day.
Peter continues to be a major fan of shared ownership as fitting all the trends of vacationing Americans. One reason is that buyers of resort property do not believe in appreciation anymore, so the shared product, bought for use, makes the most sense. Let it roll, Peter!
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Friday, July 01, 2011
Catching up with Carl - July/August 2011
Friends of Resort Development and Shared Ownership,
In past newsletters, I've pretty much passed along what we are doing
and seeing here at Star Resort Group. I've been reminded by our Scott
Tracy that the resort world does not center about Star, and it may be
more meaningful for we at Star to ask YOU for your thoughts and
opinions.
So, here goes:
and will report in August when the dust settles. In the meantime, our
friend Paul Nabor of Fractional Exchange reports that he now has
90+ members from Austria Haus in Vail. Way to go.
While still a fan of Registry Collection, the 'side' markets do serve a
purpose for some owners, and gives the developer a real and tangible
benefit.
From the Carolinas, fractional professional Hart Rist asks what types
of advanced technologies marketing and sales are using. Are apps on
smart phones and the like making relationship selling easier? What
are you doing in this area?
I welcome you to take a few minutes to send me your thoughts.
In past newsletters, I've pretty much passed along what we are doing
and seeing here at Star Resort Group. I've been reminded by our Scott
Tracy that the resort world does not center about Star, and it may be
more meaningful for we at Star to ask YOU for your thoughts and
opinions.
So, here goes:
- What do you see happening with the market today?
- Are new projects starting, old ones being revitalized?
- Is there money out there?
- Who is providing the financing?
- What's the market telling you? Are they ready to buy?
- What are your hopes and aspirations for the rest of 2011?
- What are you looking for or need? If you have money behind you, what are you looking for? Nothing works like networking to fine opportunities, and we may know of just the thing you are seeking. Let us know what you have—or want—and perhaps we can be the clearinghouse?
and will report in August when the dust settles. In the meantime, our
friend Paul Nabor of Fractional Exchange reports that he now has
90+ members from Austria Haus in Vail. Way to go.
While still a fan of Registry Collection, the 'side' markets do serve a
purpose for some owners, and gives the developer a real and tangible
benefit.
From the Carolinas, fractional professional Hart Rist asks what types
of advanced technologies marketing and sales are using. Are apps on
smart phones and the like making relationship selling easier? What
are you doing in this area?
I welcome you to take a few minutes to send me your thoughts.
Sunday, May 01, 2011
Catching up with Carl - May 2011
At Star Resort Group, what do we see for the balance of 2011?
Looking back is not particularly encouraging: After the September 2008 financial collapse, we knew that business would be slow for a period of time. But did we expect it to be dormant this long? No. Consumer confidence is still in the dumper. We are worried about hyperinflation. Does the White House economic team know what they are doing? How do we get out from under the huge debt burden? What about entitlements?
We aren’t Americans for nothing! For amid all this uncertainty, our phones are ringing… not exactly off the hook, but ringing none-the-less. That has not happened for some time!
Who is calling? Developers, those wonderful folk who are either eternally optimistic or incredibly level headed. Projects in Wisconsin, Florida, Europe, Maine and upper New York are all coming alive.
Closer to home—at our own Residence Club at Whitefish Lake—we are ramping up our marketing to make a major push this summer to sell out our existing inventory and bring on new product. Drinking our own Kool-Aid? Yes we are.
Based on a solid marketing plan by our senior marketing guru Chris Cannon and aided by the visitor analysis created by Corey Ryan, we are dedicated to breaking open the sales log jam and get back into real business!
On that note, the 2010 Ragatz Study has just been released. It’s a bleak report, but we believe that it will stand as the industry’s nadir. So read it now; in eight months, we will be able to look back with pride at how far we’ve come since the dark days of 2009–10.
Here at Star we are off and running!
Looking back is not particularly encouraging: After the September 2008 financial collapse, we knew that business would be slow for a period of time. But did we expect it to be dormant this long? No. Consumer confidence is still in the dumper. We are worried about hyperinflation. Does the White House economic team know what they are doing? How do we get out from under the huge debt burden? What about entitlements?
We aren’t Americans for nothing! For amid all this uncertainty, our phones are ringing… not exactly off the hook, but ringing none-the-less. That has not happened for some time!
Who is calling? Developers, those wonderful folk who are either eternally optimistic or incredibly level headed. Projects in Wisconsin, Florida, Europe, Maine and upper New York are all coming alive.
Closer to home—at our own Residence Club at Whitefish Lake—we are ramping up our marketing to make a major push this summer to sell out our existing inventory and bring on new product. Drinking our own Kool-Aid? Yes we are.
Based on a solid marketing plan by our senior marketing guru Chris Cannon and aided by the visitor analysis created by Corey Ryan, we are dedicated to breaking open the sales log jam and get back into real business!
On that note, the 2010 Ragatz Study has just been released. It’s a bleak report, but we believe that it will stand as the industry’s nadir. So read it now; in eight months, we will be able to look back with pride at how far we’ve come since the dark days of 2009–10.
Here at Star we are off and running!
Friday, April 01, 2011
Catching up with Carl
What to make of the Ragatz Conference this past March? Attendance was down, but given current financial affairs, that was to be expected. We all continue to anticipate that the economy is improving, but there seems only incremental evidence to support that hope. However, Dick Ragatz quoted six projects that sold well. One such project was the Hyatt in Aspen, which was selling at 1/20thshares, certainly giving it the price advantage. It appears that smart developers are planning for 2012 and thereabouts, when most believe the buyers will come back.
I asked Dick’s daughter, Tracy, who does the annual surveys, to consider taking a sample and then calling the developers to really dig down and get the numbers and the numbers behind the numbers. It seems natural that some respondents err on the high side when they report their findings that then end up in the annual report. A more in-depth sample would be good data to use with lenders and others planning to come into the business.
During the three-day conference, I attended a great panel on social media. It was the first one I’ve ever heard as it applies to our business. I am a believer, but it served to reinforce the necessity of having a staff person on all the two-way Internet avenues full time. Define yourself or be defined! I also heard at the conference—for the third time in two weeks—that of the last 50 million or so new Facebook accounts, the majority were women ages 45 to 65. If that is not directly in our roundhouse then nothing is! So, what used to be, “Get a Facebook account so the kids will think the project is cool,” is now “Get the project on Facebook, so the buyer will know you are legit.”
In other news, Chris Kelsey, of the Kelsey-Norden Reports, demonstrated that the Generation X folk, ages 30 to 45, are more interested in buying resort property than the Boomers, and certainly have a more positive attitude about being able to do so. This is a sea change in our business! Chris also pointed out that developers with inventory would have to build their way out of this economy (or their lenders will have to do so) as literally no one wants to buy a lot. On the other hand, 19% of consumers wanted to buy a fraction.
Other events worth a mention included a panel of PRC owners—very savvy folk from the San Francisco Bay Area—which was really interesting, and the new business card exchange hour, which was a terrific success. It was managed by Rob Webb andHoward Nusbaum, and they are a team-in-action to behold! What a free-for-all!
I asked Dick’s daughter, Tracy, who does the annual surveys, to consider taking a sample and then calling the developers to really dig down and get the numbers and the numbers behind the numbers. It seems natural that some respondents err on the high side when they report their findings that then end up in the annual report. A more in-depth sample would be good data to use with lenders and others planning to come into the business.
During the three-day conference, I attended a great panel on social media. It was the first one I’ve ever heard as it applies to our business. I am a believer, but it served to reinforce the necessity of having a staff person on all the two-way Internet avenues full time. Define yourself or be defined! I also heard at the conference—for the third time in two weeks—that of the last 50 million or so new Facebook accounts, the majority were women ages 45 to 65. If that is not directly in our roundhouse then nothing is! So, what used to be, “Get a Facebook account so the kids will think the project is cool,” is now “Get the project on Facebook, so the buyer will know you are legit.”
In other news, Chris Kelsey, of the Kelsey-Norden Reports, demonstrated that the Generation X folk, ages 30 to 45, are more interested in buying resort property than the Boomers, and certainly have a more positive attitude about being able to do so. This is a sea change in our business! Chris also pointed out that developers with inventory would have to build their way out of this economy (or their lenders will have to do so) as literally no one wants to buy a lot. On the other hand, 19% of consumers wanted to buy a fraction.
Other events worth a mention included a panel of PRC owners—very savvy folk from the San Francisco Bay Area—which was really interesting, and the new business card exchange hour, which was a terrific success. It was managed by Rob Webb andHoward Nusbaum, and they are a team-in-action to behold! What a free-for-all!
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Catching up with Carl - March 2011
On February 17-18, I attended the Fractional Summit held in London. The meeting was presented by Fractional Life, the company’s third in the U.K. Fractional Life also produced a Miami conference in 2010 and have plans to host another in 2011.
The delegates came from England, Scotland, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Denmark, Poland and Turkey, as well as Latin America, Canada and, of course, the United States.
I spoke on 'Lessons Learned from Star Resorts' and then was part of an 'Ask the Experts' panel. The seven ‘Lessons Learned’ that I presented were:
If there was common theme that resonated throughout the conference, it was increased transparency in the product presentation. On one hand, in the U.S., it’s all about transparency, so those discussions seemed old hat. On the other hand, it was obvious that due to past experiences, Star Resort Group would have an advantage in entering the European market.
Our intent in attending the conference was to 'make a market' in the U.K. and Europe. The countries are not as brand conscious as the United States, so there is more opportunity for the independent developer.
I came away with a handful of good leads and the reconnection with two talented execs from our world's Finest Days.
The delegates came from England, Scotland, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Denmark, Poland and Turkey, as well as Latin America, Canada and, of course, the United States.
I spoke on 'Lessons Learned from Star Resorts' and then was part of an 'Ask the Experts' panel. The seven ‘Lessons Learned’ that I presented were:
- What is the fractional markup today versus yesterday?
- The buyer profile
- Generation X buyers and the opportunity to sell to them
- Fractions—the most difficult product to sell
- Marketing and lead generation
- Selling the fraction
- Meeting expectations—post sale management
If there was common theme that resonated throughout the conference, it was increased transparency in the product presentation. On one hand, in the U.S., it’s all about transparency, so those discussions seemed old hat. On the other hand, it was obvious that due to past experiences, Star Resort Group would have an advantage in entering the European market.
Our intent in attending the conference was to 'make a market' in the U.K. and Europe. The countries are not as brand conscious as the United States, so there is more opportunity for the independent developer.
I came away with a handful of good leads and the reconnection with two talented execs from our world's Finest Days.
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Catching up with Carl - February 2011
Resort sales haven’t recovered, but with a little creativity and
minding the realities of the market, resort product can be
moved. Our acute surgery program at South Carolina’s Dye
Villas resort is paying some dividends. Our developer 'close
out' at $30k per 1/13th + HOA dues for a year + closing costs
+ extras, all cash at $34,650 down from $60k has gotten us 8
closed sales in the past 60 days with the pipeline filling up. We
began this program at the start of the holiday season, so uphill
with our customers to come to the project. We have about 12
other, solid deals in the works. All the buyers are regional to
Myrtle Beach.
We plan to continue this 'close out' through the first quarter.
Here's the scenario: Dye Villas was built and opened in late
2005. It sold very well through early 2008 and then began to
slow and stopped on September 8th of that year.
Not much happened until the spring of 2010 when we became
involved. In the meantime, a 1/12th share had been approved
by the DRE in South Carolina, down from the 1/6 share
previously offered at up to $150k. By 2010, it was down to
$120k, so the $60k for the then amended to 1/13th share was a
good price. But there was no traction, so in November of 2010
we began with the 'close out' plan.
The concern was to: [1] make sales and bring in some cash,
[2] bring in more HOA dues to cover the subsidy and [3] most
importantly, not let the project go stale, to not let it be seen as
old and older inventory although it's been kept in impeccable
condition.
So, what do we know of the recession? Cut, cut and cut the
prices and some prospects will move off center. Not very
clever, but what can work, can work.
We have reconfigured our sales team in the process,
stepped up our relationship selling skills, filled our toolboxes
with contemporary data and figuratively 'married' any prospect
that will raise their hand. We are with them until they 'divorce' us.
At Whit ef ish in Mont ana, it's still hand- to- hand combat to
get decisions made. For every sale we close we lose two that
had deposits and paperwork. For all of 2010, we closed just a
handful.
I’ve previously talked about the turn of the Canadian market,
which used to buy real estate in the U.S. as a hedge to the
Canadian economy. Now, they say the U.S. is worse off than
Canada, so why buy? I’ll be speaking at the London fractional
conference in February, and am interested to see how
European resorts are fairing.
minding the realities of the market, resort product can be
moved. Our acute surgery program at South Carolina’s Dye
Villas resort is paying some dividends. Our developer 'close
out' at $30k per 1/13th + HOA dues for a year + closing costs
+ extras, all cash at $34,650 down from $60k has gotten us 8
closed sales in the past 60 days with the pipeline filling up. We
began this program at the start of the holiday season, so uphill
with our customers to come to the project. We have about 12
other, solid deals in the works. All the buyers are regional to
Myrtle Beach.
We plan to continue this 'close out' through the first quarter.
Here's the scenario: Dye Villas was built and opened in late
2005. It sold very well through early 2008 and then began to
slow and stopped on September 8th of that year.
Not much happened until the spring of 2010 when we became
involved. In the meantime, a 1/12th share had been approved
by the DRE in South Carolina, down from the 1/6 share
previously offered at up to $150k. By 2010, it was down to
$120k, so the $60k for the then amended to 1/13th share was a
good price. But there was no traction, so in November of 2010
we began with the 'close out' plan.
The concern was to: [1] make sales and bring in some cash,
[2] bring in more HOA dues to cover the subsidy and [3] most
importantly, not let the project go stale, to not let it be seen as
old and older inventory although it's been kept in impeccable
condition.
So, what do we know of the recession? Cut, cut and cut the
prices and some prospects will move off center. Not very
clever, but what can work, can work.
We have reconfigured our sales team in the process,
stepped up our relationship selling skills, filled our toolboxes
with contemporary data and figuratively 'married' any prospect
that will raise their hand. We are with them until they 'divorce' us.
At Whit ef ish in Mont ana, it's still hand- to- hand combat to
get decisions made. For every sale we close we lose two that
had deposits and paperwork. For all of 2010, we closed just a
handful.
I’ve previously talked about the turn of the Canadian market,
which used to buy real estate in the U.S. as a hedge to the
Canadian economy. Now, they say the U.S. is worse off than
Canada, so why buy? I’ll be speaking at the London fractional
conference in February, and am interested to see how
European resorts are fairing.
Sunday, January 09, 2011
January 2011
January 2011
Our acute surgery program at Dye Villas is paying some dividends. Our developer 'close out' at $30k per 1/13th + HOA dues for a year + closing costs + extras, all cash at #34,650 down from $60k has gotten us 8 closed sales in the past 60 days with the pipeline filling up. We began this program at the start of the holiday season, so up hill with our customers to come to the project. We have about 12 other, solid deals in the works. All the buyers are regional to Myrtle Beach.
We plan to continue this 'close out' through the first quarter. Here's the scenario:
Dye Villas was built and opened in late 2005. It sold very well thru early 2008 and then began to slow and stopped on September 8th of that year.
Not much happened 'till the spring of '10 when we became involved. In the mean time a 1/12th share had been approved by the DRE in South Carolina, down from the 1/6 share previously offered at up to $150k. By 2010 it was down to $120,000, so the $60,000 for the then amended to 1/13th share was a good price. But, no traction, so in November of 2010 we began with the 'close out' plan.
The concern was to: [1] make sales and bring in some cash, [2] bring in more HOA dues to cover the subsidy and [3] most important to not let the project go stale, to not let it be seen as old and older inventory although it's been kept in impeccable condition.
So, what do we know of the recession? Cut, cut and cut the prices and some prospects will move off center. Not very clever, but what can work; can work.
We have reconfigured our sales team in the process, stepped up our relationship selling skills, filled our toolboxes with contemporary data and figuratively 'married' any prospect that will raise their hand. We are with them until they 'divorce' us.
At Whitefish it's still hand-to-hand combat to get decisions made. For every sale we close we loose two that had deposits and paperwork. For all of 2010 we closed just a handful. I mentioned the turning on us of the Canadian market, who used to buy real estate in the US as a hedge to the Canadian economy. Now, they tell us the US is worse off than Canada, so why buy?
I'm speaking at the London fractional conference in February, interested to see if there is any advisory work to keep our team busy.
Will the tax rate extensions and the change of power in the House of Representatives make any difference in consumer confidence? We'll see….
Friday, January 07, 2011
January 2011
January 2011
Our acute surgery program at Dye Villas is paying some dividends. Our developer 'close out' at $30k per 1/13th + HOA dues for a year + closing costs + extras, all cash at #34,650 down from $60k has gotten us 8 closed sales in the past 60 days with the pipeline filling up. We began this program at the start of the holiday season, so up hill with our customers to come to the project. We have about 12 other, solid deals in the works. All the buyers are regional to Myrtle Beach.
We plan to continue this 'close out' through the first quarter. Here's the scenario:
Dye Villas was built and opened in late 2005. It sold very well thru early 2008 and then began to slow and stopped on September 8th of that year.
Not much happened 'till the spring of '10 when we became involved. In the mean time a 1/12th share had been approved by the DRE in South Carolina, down from the 1/6 share previously offered at up to $150k. By 2010 it was down to $120,000, so the $60,000 for the then amended to 1/13th share was a good price. But, no traction, so in November of 2010 we began with the 'close out' plan.
The concern was to: [1] make sales and bring in some cash, [2] bring in more HOA dues to cover the subsidy and [3] most important to not let the project go stale, to not let it be seen as old and older inventory although it's been kept in impeccable condition.
So, what do we know of the recession? Cut, cut and cut the prices and some prospects will move off center. Not very clever, but what can work; can work.
We have reconfigured our sales team in the process, stepped up our relationship selling skills, filled our toolboxes with contemporary data and figuratively 'married' any prospect that will raise their hand. We are with them until they 'divorce' us.
At Whitefish it's still hand-to-hand combat to get decisions made. For every sale we close we loose two that had deposits and paperwork. For all of 2010 we closed just a handful. I mentioned the turning on us of the Canadian market, who used to buy real estate in the US as a hedge to the Canadian economy. Now, they tell us the US is worse off than Canada, so why buy?
I'm speaking at the London fractional conference in February, interested to see if there is any advisory work to keep our team busy.
Will the tax rate extensions and the change of power in the House of Representatives make any difference in consumer confidence? We'll see….
Carl
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