Thursday, September 05, 2013

Catching Up with Carl: October 2012

Well, we’re back in business—it’s been a long haul. Save for a small Whitefish, Montana, project begun in the depths of 2009, Star has been fairly dormant since the fall of 2008. We’re typical of many in the resort business, I guess.

We continue to work on New Orleans, which offers abundant opportunity, and the four-season resort in central New York, where there is currently inventory to sell. Also, the Florida Keys deal continues in good, straight lines as its experienced developers find the best way to come to market.

Star also continues to work on the Seahorse Beach Club on the Texas Gulf Coast. It’s about an hour from boomtown Houston and 30 minutes south of Galveston, and will include whole and fractional homes right on the Gulf or on the Bay across the highway. Seahorse will be in presales spring of 2013 and in sales for the summer of 2013. We began looking at the project a year ago after its developer, John Howton, had come to the fractional conclusion on his own. Star was very cautious in proceeding, not being sure of consumer confidence, discretionary income and all the slow economic factors facing the nation.

It’s now less than two months until the election. Regardless of whom you favor running for president, one cannot ignore the state of the economy and the attendant low consumer confidence, lack of spending on big-ticket items and the limited bank financing. All these elements need to change for the resort real estate market to become robust again, and for fractions to become the product of choice that all research says they will be.
Here’s our assessment of the market. If Romney wins in November, then the dam will burst with pent-up demand. If Obama wins—and this is where our analysis gets dicey—the buyers will have to face four more years of his policies, but the buyers will return as they will not deny themselves their personal and family use of a resort property. The latter scenario will mean a slower up-take in sales.

Maybe 2013 will be a positive resort development and sales year? Boy, we sure hope so. We are ready!

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